Russia´s different forms of influence in the Near Abroad states

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia under Yeltsin tried to get a closer relationship with the Western countries, especially focusing on cooperation with the United States. As the Russian government noticed the flaws in the cooperation, Moscow changed the focus on other Near Abroad states. Russia still has big obvious and mandatory interest in the former ex-Soviet Eurasian republics. Russia needs close ties to these countries for economic and geostrategic reasons since the economies of these countries are closely linked to the Russian economy. To secure Russia´s will, the Russian government has developed multiple ways to control the newly independent states without actually having the competences to do so. Russia´s military influence, the dependence on Russia´s resources and Russian cultural influence can change the politics of a CIS state drastically.

Russia and the West


After the fall of the USSR, the Russian leadership put its focus on building a closer relationship with the West while having just a little interest in the Near Abroad states. Yeltsin thought that Russia belonged in the West, should therefore be part of the West and should as much as possible imitate the West in its own domestic development. The West, especially the United States, welcomed the new policies Russia wanted to implement, even stating the slogan of a “mature strategic relationship” between Russia and the United States – the former East/West contest has been sanctified. With the help of the West, Russia undertook domestic reforms and tried to establish a free market and democratic institutions. Russia hoped to become America´s coequal partner in global politics and then to become an attractive partner for the CIS states, which should lead to a closer economic and political integration strengthening Russia´s influence and power in the CIS region.

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Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton in 1995

But the relationship was deceptive. On the one side, the United States did not want to share global power with Russia, and on the other side, even if they wanted to share global power, Russia was not strong enough economically and socially to be a real global partner.
In 1996, the US-Government started planning a NATO expansion towards the Eurasian countries. Russian elites were concerned about the expansion as it could also be interpreted as an advance towards Russia of a hostile America-led alliance. The increase of the American sphere of influence in Europe diminished the Russian hope that the former Soviet Republics would revert to Moscow´s influence once Russia would had regained its health. The American idea in Eurasia was, opposed to Russia´s idea, to have multiple moderately strong, but independent states without having one sole leading power in the Region. Regarding this, the Ukraine became extremely important for the Western policy-makers. Ukraine should become free and sovereign and be independent from Russia, stopping Russia from reintegrating the former Soviet Republics, as the American view stated that an imperial Russia could not be a democratic Russia.

After it became clearer that a partnership between Russia and the USA was not viable, as Russia was extremely backward in social and economic terms by the communist rule and as all the Western aid helped not enough for Russia to stabilize the economy, Russia put focus on the relations with the former Soviet Republics, also called the “Near Abroad”.

Russia´s policy towards the Near Abroad


Russia´s prime goal was to achieve control over the former Near Abroad states. The Russian government developed a three part strategy to try to secure control over the newly independent states. First, Russia created the CIS. Second, Russia tried to keep military control over the former Soviet Republics by maintaining military presence in the countries. The last part is to control the nations through Russia´s economic and energy power, especially by controlling and manipulating oil and gas. The Russian culture also influences the people living in the CIS states.

“Whereas in Europe countries worked collaboratively in order to unite, the CIS was created expressly for the sake of a civilized divorce. There was only one goal: the CIS was created so the process of the Soviet Union´s disintegration would unfold in the most civilized manner possible. And this goal was achieved.” (Putin in Armenia / March 2005)

Short summary of the CIS


The CIS was founded in December 1991 by Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

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Logo of the CIS

One of the most important reasons was the economic interdependency of the former Soviet Republics. Many industrial enterprises would have simply ceased to exist because they depended on fuel and raw materials, which are originating on what is now a foreign country. The ties with Russia were extremely significant as Russia accounted for roughly 70 % of the Soviet industrial output and supplied many republics with fuel and raw materials.
At first, in 1992 and 1993, Russia hoped that its leadership of the CIS would expand the influence over the large ex-Soviet Republics. But the newly independent states resisted against the absorption. Most of the nations, especially Ukraine, resisted Russia´s perceived use of the CIS to promote a Moscow-led union.

Pretending to help local authorities to deal with unrest, Russia deployed troops in Georgia and Tajikistan in 1993. This shows, that Russia acted outside of the competences it had in the CIS. One year later in 1994, Russia had got the authority to act like a leading role – becoming a “peacekeeper”- in the CIS. The refusal to join the CIS by the Baltic States in 1995 made clear, that the CIS is not a democratic organization. Several leaders of member states of the CIS spoke up against Russia´s role in the CIS in 1995, strengthening this point in 1997 blaming Russia for the way in which the CIS had become a tool of Russian hegemony.

In the meantime, the newly independent states had concluded a variety of economic and military ties among themselves and with other states, strengthening their own position and weakening Russia´s.

In February 2006, Georgia officially withdrew the membership of the CIS Defense Council to become a member of the NATO as it could not be a member of two military structures simultaneously. In Russia´s eyes, this Georgian policy weakened the unity and purpose of the CIS furthermore and was a provocation by the West against Russia. Georgia officially withdrew from the CIS in August 2008 which resulted in the Georgian War against Russia.

Russia´s military influence


Russia needed the Near Abroad states to gain control over the Soviet Union´s military assets, which are spread over all of the 15 former Soviet Republics. The most important possessions of the Soviet Union were the Black Sea Fleet, the military bases in the respective countries and a space launch facility. Russia was the major candidate to inherit all the military installations, but the newly independent states did not want Russia to gain the complete control over the military of the USSR. For example Kazakhstan wanted to become the owner of the Baikonur Cosmodrome, the space launch facility, and Ukraine wanted to get the power over the Black Sea Fleet. Georgia has been demanding the withdrawal of the Russian military bases since its independence.russia-military-ukraine
The Russian government wanted to control the military in the Near Abroad states to prevent a penetration in their own territory. This objective could be achieved most easily by creating a belt of friendly states, which acts like a buffer zone towards Russia, and where it is legitimate for Russia to avoid a full withdrawal of the Russian military.

The military influence in the CIS states should have prevented democratization in the different nations. Neither Yeltsin nor Putin made efforts to promote liberal democracy in the former Soviet Republics; in contrast, they preferred dealing with authoritarian leaders. The Color Revolutions starting in Serbia in 2000, followed by Georgia in 2003, Ukraine 2004, Lebanon and Kyrgyzstan 2005 and the social unrest and brutal government crackdown in Uzbekistan 2005 had made a serious impact on Russia´s policy. Russia feared that the democratization in the newly Independent States would have an impact on Russia itself. So the Russian government tried to stop and prevent the political mobilization against the authoritarian leaders.

A good example to support that statement is the Georgian War in 2008, which is already mentioned above, or in Moldova in 2005.

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Georgia´s course towards the West has been severely opposed by the Russian government. They have spread anti-Georgian propaganda in Russia´s media while supporting the pro-Russian movements in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Russian government wanted to keep the situation in Georgia politically unstable which would allow them to maintain military presence in Georgia. These actions were taken to prevent any cooperation between the Georgian and the Russian democracy activists. In August 2008, warfare erupted as Russia sent troops into South Ossetia to minimize Georgia´s control over the territory. These events led up to the invasion of Georgia by the Russian military, which destroyed major economic key points and important infrastructure. After establishing security zones, Russia declared that they would acknowledge South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, which was broadly seen as illegal by both Western countries and third world governments.#

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Another example is Moldova, which had to fight against its own separatist challenge in Transnistria. In 1991/1992, an independence movement supported by 1,500 Russian soldiers fought against the Moldavian government. After a peace agreement was signed in 1992, Moldovan authorities wanted the Russian troops to leave Transnistria, but they did not withdraw the troops up until 1999. Shortly before he would resign as the president, Yeltsin formally declared the withdrawal of the military forces in Transnistria, but Putin canceled this plan shortly after he became president. The Russian government stated in the last years that the Russian forces in Moldova will be acting as “peacekeepers” for the indefinite future.
In 2005, Moldova stated that it would like orientate itself more towards the West. As a result, in early 2006 the Russian government stopped the transfer of gas to Moldova for 16 days and the import of Moldavian agricultural goods, which are a vital part of the Moldavian economy. This pressure made Moldova drawback, promising not to leave the CIS.

This shows how Russia uses and abuses its military strength to enforce other smaller countries the Russian will.

Oil and gas as a factor to increase Russian influence in the Near Abroad


Oil and gas are extremely influential and important natural resources.gazprom-flagRussia uses its monopoly to control the politics of the CIS states. The mostcommon discussion here is about the state-owned Russian enterprises, which expanded in the CIS countries, mostly focusing on the natural gas producer Gazprom.

In the 1990s, Russia subsidized the other CIS states with lower gas prices than for the rest of the world. This subsidizing was used to keep the CIS states close to Russia. But as the world gas prices rose, Russia lost a lot of money by selling the gas cheaper to the former Soviet Republics. Putin then put in a lot of effort in accumulating money for the state by increasing the prices for the CIS states, bringing the prices for gas into line with the prices for the EU and increasing the money they get from the Near Abroad nations.

The Russian energy market serves as a very influential foreign policy tool, allowing Russia to control the policies of the states in the CIS, because they depend on the Russian energy supply. For example in the end of 2005, Ukraine resisted a price increase of Gazprom´s gas, resulting in Gazprom shutting down the supply of gas to the Ukraine for four days in January 2006, only feeding in the gas which should be exported to Europe. oil-pipeline-ukraine-russia-canada-alberta-export-prentice-ediweekly_0 The Ukrainian government reacted immediately and acquiesced in the demands of Russia. Gazprom is getting maximum control over the gas and oil infrastructure in the Near Abroad states. Starting in the early 1990s, Gazprom is getting major stakes of the gas companies in the CIS states, for example in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Armenia. They use this monopoly to control the East-European gas market and furthermore, to have a threat against the EU as the EU depends a lot from the gas of the Eurasian states.

While keeping the CIS states close to Russia, the Russian oil and gas companies can profit of this relationship. The CIS countries offer lucrative targets for resource-seeking investments. As the most lucrative domestic oil reserves are located in East-Siberia, which is lacking a proper infrastructure, it would require long-term investments to access these resources, which might not be worth it. So the Russian companies try to get their resources in the more accessible locations in the CIS countries.

Concluded, Russia uses its monopoly over essential resources to force other countries to fulfill its will.

Russky mir as an influential factor


For Putin, it was clear that the most important factor influencing a country´s success was the “intellectual, spiritual and moral quality of its people”, which was strongly dependent on the citizens´ feeling that they share common values, a common history and common traditions. Furthermore, he strengthened the point that he wanted to create a culture of unity in diversity in the CIS, putting focus on the historical identity and relationships of the different nations. The feeling of unity would greatly improve stability in world affairs, as the different nations would act together and support each another. The Russian Orthodox Church, the institution that defined the nation´s moral vision and sense of honor, was the major factor in this point.

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The cross of the Russian Orthodox Church infront of the Russian flag

Beyond the Russian borders, this feeling of honor was called the Russky mir.
Russian politicians wanted to abuse this feeling of unity in the 1990s. Pyotr Shedrovitsky, a political consultant, used this feeling of Russian unity to strengthen Russia´s power in the newly independent states after the dissolution of the USSR. The Russky mir was used to preserve the Russian language and culture outside of Russia, strengthening Russia´s influence in the neighboring states while supporting Russia´s country stability and restoring Russia´s status as a world power.

The Russian politicians, notably Putin, have recognized the enormous social capital of the Russky mir and the Russian Orthodox Church. Fulfilling the expectations of the Russian Orthodox Church, Putin is strongly supported by his citizens.

But the Russian Orthodox Church is also influencing the foreign policies of Russia. The Russian Orthodox Church  promotes its concerns in the policies of Russia, influencing Orthodox Christians or other religious believers. This encourages the spread of Christian values and morals. The church is also capable of using the Russian propaganda machines, for example Russia Today or Sputnik to fulfill this goal. Finally, whenever the Russian state or a Russian organization promotes Russian culture or language, the Russian Orthodox Church is coming along and spreads their religious agenda. This is leading to a faster influence of the Russian cultural identity.

As you can see, Russia uses its cultural power to increase its support of the population while abusing the power of religion.

Conclusion


After the failed cooperation between Russia and the West, Russia put focus on the Near Abroad countries. The foundation of the CIS was conflicting. On the one side, the economic interdependency between the former Soviet Republics was big. On the other side, Russia abused the CIS to try to establish a Russian hegemony. The Russian military and resources have a huge influence towards the different CIS states. Russia can drastically change the policies of a member state by invading them or using its monopoly over gas to force them to fulfill Russia´s will. Furthermore, Russia can abuse its cultural power to convert the population of the newly independent states to Russia´s ideology.

 

 

Moscow Death Brigade´s new video

Moscow Death Brigade is a Rap/ Hardcore band from Moscow. They fight against the rising neo-Nazi movement in Russia and they spread the message of unity and friendship.

„This track is dedicated to everybody who is seeking new home, immigrants, refugees! It’s a shame that in a modern world too many people still don’t have the right of freedom of movement and some people are privileged because of their place of birth. The tragic history lessons are still not learned and the price of that is too high: broken families and broken lives. Remember: no one is illegal!“ (Moscow Death Brigade)

Euromaidan and the war in Ukraine

In my second blog post of this blogging circle I will explain you what has happened at the Euromaidan protests and why Putin annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

Euromaidan-Protests


The protests in Kiev have been one of the most brutal protests the Ukraine has ever seen. But how did the protests start?

Before and after the Protests – Kiev’s Independence Square

In November 2013, the Ukrainian government made the statement that they would not sign a contract with the European Union. The contract was part of the EU expansion and would have included a free trade agreement and cooperation in international security problems. Other reasons for the protests were economic sanctions and pressure by Russia to join the Eurasian Economic Union. High unemployment and corruption in the government led to massive dissatisfaction with the government.

After a peaceful protest, which was brutally beaten down by the Ukrainian police, the protests escalated on December 1st 2013. The protesters demanded the resignation of the Russian-leaning president Viktor Yanukovych and the immediate conclusion of the contract with the EU. At least 500.000 people demonstrated on December 8th in Kiev on the Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Engl.: Independent Square). Heavy street battles and riots against the governmental forces led to at least 70-80 causalities and many injuries in mid-February 2014. On February 21st, a contract between the opposition and the government was signed to end the crisis. The following day, the parliament suspended Yanukovych, who fled the country, and formed a new government. New-elections were dated on the May 25th. The EU declared the decision of the Ukrainian parliament to end Yanukovych´s presidency as lawful on February 24th. An extreme right-wing party brought in the discussion in the parliament to ban multiple official languages, including Russian.

Russian Annexation of the Crimea


On February 27th -28th pro-Russian Gunmen invaded the Crimean Peninsula and occupied strategical important institutions and organizations. Without anyone outside of the Crimea noticing, a transition of power happened towards a pro-Russian government. On March 16th, the newly formed government made a referendum if the Crimea should be part of Russia again. 80 % of the population participated in the referendum and 96 % of the participants wanted the Crimea to join Russia. On March 18th, the Crimea officially became part of Russia. On that day, the Russian company Gazprom made an application for the gas in front of the Crimean Peninsula.

War in the western part of Ukraine


Opposed to the protest for more European integration, there were also several protests for more autonomy in the different eastern regions of Ukraine. The protesters waved Russian flags to show that they are opposed to the pro-West policies the new government had implemented.

Pro-Russian influence and protests in the Ukraine 2014

In April 2014, several administration buildings were occupied by citizens. The Ukrainian government suspected that Russian agents occupied the buildings as the occupation was extremely good coordinated. The until this point untagged gunmen started wearing the Ribbon of Saint George, which was worn by people who were for Russian´s unity and which was a reminder of the victory against German fascism.

The war between the pro-Western movement and the pro-Russian separatists escalated, especially in the cities Luhansk, Odessa, Kharkiv and Sloviansk. The separatists initiated a referendum on May 11th if the eastern part of Ukraine should become independent. Two weeks later, on the 25th of May, Petro Poroshenko was elected as the new President of the Ukraine. The Ukrainian citizens and the Western nations hoped that the situation would deescalate. Until this point, 4.000 people were killed and thousands of people were hurt. The 17th of July 2014 marked a new peak of the conflict: A civil airplane was shot down, probably by Russian separatists, and 298 civilians were killed. A first treaty of ceasefire was signed on September 5th 2014 in Minsk. Even though there was a lot of hope the war would stop, at some places the shooting continued.

The pro-European parties made a huge victory in the parliamentary elections on October 26th. The Russian separatists, who sought for an independence of the Ukraine, did not acknowledge the elections. They held their own elections in Donetsk and Lugansk and two leaders of the separatists have been elected in the East-Ukraine. It is worth mentioning that only pro-Russian politicians could have been elected.

Minsk II, the second ceasefire agreement after the Minsk Protocol, has been signed by the leaders of the Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany. The big military weapons should be removed from the critical points. But violations of the agreement are happening on both sides up to today. The overall fights have decreased, but the situation is still unstable in the Ukraine.

Russian interests in the Ukraine


There are several different reasons why Russia is interested in the Ukraine. The reasons are economically, politically, militarily and culturally.

Russia´s economy is extremely dependent on the export of oil and gas. Ukraine´s energy market and the pipeline infrastructure are highly important for the exports of oil and gas to Europe. If can they control the pipelines in the Ukraine, the Russian exports to Europe are guaranteed. A bonus point of controlling Ukraine´s energy market is that they can prevent the Ukraine from exporting their own gas. Then Russia would have the monopoly of the exports and would extremely strengthen their global economic position.

As Russia´s economy stagnates, an annexation of the Ukraine would strengthen the internal support of the Russian citizens as the national pride would rose. It would be seen as a geopolitical victory. On the other side, if Putin would back out now, he would be shamed both domestically and internationally. The Russian citizens would think Putin is not strong enough to act against the Western states. The Western states would not take Putin serious anymore and they can ignore the will of him/ Russia. Putin is also afraid of the democratization in the Ukraine. If Ukraine becomes a democracy, the possibility for Russia to become a democracy as well rises. The democratization would undermine Putin´s power and he has to fear a “revolution”. The Ukraine has also been a transition state of the Russian policies towards the West. If Ukraine becomes part of the Western states, Russia would lose his “buffer” between the Western world and the Russian border.

This buffer zone is extremely important for the Russian understanding of military safety. Russia has always wanted Ukraine to be military neutral, to be a buffer to the NATO member states. If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, the NATO would be directly upfront of Russia. For example, the USA would then be allowed to move its troops near the Russian border and in direct proximity for an attack against Russia. The fear of a military intervention by the USA in Russia is a huge factor why Russia wants Ukraine´s neutrality.
The Black Sea is an important strategic location for the Russian military. The Black Sea provides Russia the opportunity to intervene militarily in the Mediterranean.

There are also some cultural aspects why Russia is interested in the Ukraine. There is a high amount of Slavic people living in the Ukraine. The historic relationship of the Slavs and Russia makes it reasonable for Russia to try to protect the Slavs and the Russian identity. Especially in the Eastern Ukraine, there is a Russian speaking majority and the people living there identify themselves mostly as Russians. The Ukrainian population is torn apart from between the Soviet identity and the relatively new national identity. Many older people have grown up in the Soviet Union and they are still influenced by the values of the USSR.


I think Russia´s reasons to take action in the Ukraine are legit. But how Russia tried to influence the politics in the Ukraine were extremely over the top. The military intervention killed at least 6000 people. I think there would have been better ways for Putin to show his interests in Ukraine, the brutal way was definitely not the best solution.

Further interesting readings:

http://www.erstestiftung.org/blog/ukraine-crisis-status-quo-challenges-and-possible-solutions/

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-real-solution-the-ukraine-crisis-it-doesnt-involve-arms-12221

Historical Relationship between Russia and the Ukraine

The blog post of this blogging circle is divided into two separate posts. First, I will analyze the historical relationship of Russia and the Ukraine starting in the 17th century up until the Orange Revolution in 2004. The second post will be about what has happened at the Euromaidan protests, which have started in November 2013, and about the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia.


In this blog post, I will start with a brief summary of the historical relationship of Russia and the Ukraine before the USSR founded. Then I will explain the relationship of the two nations as they were part of the USSR and how they changed their foreign policies after the collapse of the Soviet Union, especially focusing on the influence of the West/ NATO towards the Ukraine and Russia.

Historical relationship of Russia and Ukraine


Before the Soviet Union was founded in 1922, Ukraine had many different relationships with Russia. During the time of the Cossacks in the 17th century, Ukraine was split and parts of it joined the Russian Empire. In the end of the 18th century, Poland was split and at the Congress of Vienna was decided that the Russian Empire could keep several parts of the Ukraine which Alexander I of Russia had annexed, including the Crimean Peninsula.
In 1917, an independence movement had formed in the Ukraine. The February Revolution in the Russian Empire was seen as a chance for the Ukrainian population to found an independent state. A conflict between the Russian government in the Ukraine and the independence movement emerged but it was solved by a compromise. The movement finally declared full independence on January 22nd 1918, but Ukraine lost its independence again in March 1918 as German troops marched into the country. After Germany lost the First World War, a civil war decided who would reign over Ukraine which the Bolsheviks won. In 1919, the Ukraine became the Ukrainian Soviet Socials Republic. After a bloody war was won by Red Army against an anarchist army formed of peasants and workers, the Ukraine became part of the USSR in 1922.
Being part of the Soviet Union, the Ukraine produced a lot of food for the Soviet Union. A famine, which was called Holodomor, was provoked by Stalin in 1932/1933 and killed about 3.5 Million people, mostly nationalists who were against a Soviet rule in the Ukraine. In the Second World War, German troops conquered the Ukraine again. 4 Million Civilians, of whom 1.5 Million were Jews, were killed during the war. After the war, the whole Ukraine has been united in one country within the Soviet Union and the population of the Ukraine rose from 36.5 Million in 1950 to 51.7 Million in 1989. In 1954, the Crimean Peninsula was been given from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic as a gift to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, which is seen today as a huge mistake by several Russian politicians, including Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine and Russia after collapse of the USSR


Near the end of the Soviet Union in 1988/ 1989 the perestroika and glasnost Gorbachev implemented changed the policies of the Union drastically. The perestroika led to a liberalization of the Union; freedom of speech and freedom of the press together with a change in the planned economy towards a free market economy was a big step for a democratization of the USSR. People began to talk about the different territories as “republics” within the Soviet Union and Gorbachev proposed the idea of “a strong center [in Moscow] and strong republics”. Self-management and self-financing of the republics should guarantee more autonomy from the Politburo of the CPSU.

Boris Yeltsin

In May 1990, Boris Yeltsin, who was supported by the Democratic Russian movement, was elected as the head of the Russian Supreme Soviet. He supported the sovereignty of the RSFSR and strongly encouraged better Ukrainian-Russian relations. Ukraine and Russia signed the “Declaration of Principles on Inter-State Relations between Ukraine and the RSFSR Based on the Declarations of State Sovereignty” in August 1990, which guaranteed both countries

• to become subjects of international law,
• sovereign equality of the two sides,
• noninterference in each other´s internal affairs,
• mutually beneficial cooperation in a broad range of areas on the basis of interstate treaties
• and regulation of all disputes in the spirit of harmony.

In November 1990, another treaty was signed which defined the territorial borders of both countries. The Ukraine declared independence from the USSR in August 1991 – a referendum took place december, 1st 1991 and about 90% of the population voted for independence – and finally, the head of its Russian, Ukrainian and Belorussian republics declared the dissolution of the USSR in December 1991 which was formally replaced by the Commonwealth of Independent States.
The loss of the Ukraine as a part of the Russian nation brought several unexpected problems to Russia. Russia has lost a potentially rich industrial and agricultural economy. Furthermore, Russia lost its dominant position on the Black Sea. Before the dissolution of the USSR, the Black Sea had been the point of departure for the projection of the Soviet Navy in the Mediterranean. The Russian fleet now only has a small strip of land on the coast. Here, the Crimean Peninsula plays an important role in the foreign politics of Russia. But we´ll come to this point in the following blog post.
Russia also lost the possibility to unite all Eurasian countries to another Eurasian empire, in which Moscow could dominate the non-Slavs in the South of the former Soviet Union. An independent Ukraine makes it impossible for Moscow to become such a global power again.

The ideas of the West/ NATO


The western democracies wanted to secure peace and a balance of power in Eastern Europe. They knew that if there is one big power, the one big power could increase the influence towards the other countries. The NATO and the EU supported the former Soviet States so that they became independent and stable, and Russia unable to integrate them into their Empire again. The American idea was that an imperial Russia could not be a democratic Russia.
In the following, Russian politicians were afraid, that the financial aid of the West and the military cooperation from the NATO with the Ukraine could have led to a role as an outsider in European and global politics. Moscow hoped that maybe someday Ukraine would be re-integrated and part of Russia again. The Western aid for the Ukraine was therefore seen as a direct attack against the Russian interest.

Near abroad policy of Russia


As Russia became conscious that they were too backward and too devastated to become a long term democratic trading partner with the USA – as they hoped they could become after they had got the assistance from the USA to become more democratic and to undertake domestic reforms for an economic recovery after the collapse of the USSR – Russia´s new foreign policy “near abroad” prioritized the countries in the geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union with Moscow being the decision making center. Russia wished, that the CIS would transform into some kind of Eurasian “EU”, which would be led by Moscow. Trading and cooperation with the newly independent states would stabilize the region, especially as all of the countries remained tied to Russia. Integration and a partnership were necessary, as the economies of the different countries needed the exchange with the different countries. The EU was taken as an example here.

The Commonwealth of Independent States

But there were several differences between the EU and the CIS. In the CIS Russia should have become the leading power that overshadows all other members in several economic and territorial aspects. There is no single leading power in the EU, even though for example Germany and France have a huge influence on EU´s policies. The other CIS states feared that the “integration” in the CIS could become subordination into a new Russian Empire. Another factor was the economic difference the countries in the two international organizations. While the richer Western EU countries profited by an economic and political integration, the poorer countries in the EU benefited by subsidies. In contrast, the countries in the CIS viewed Russia as politically unstable and not fully economically developed. They would not benefit as much from such cooperation as the poorer countries did in the EU.

Ukraine´s opposition against Moscow´s plan


Especially in the Ukraine there was a major opposition against Moscow´s ideas. The Russian “integration” was a major threat for the sovereignty and independence of the Ukraine. Russia was questioning Ukraine´s territorial ownership of the Crimea, especially over the port of Sevastopol, as the Russian Navy docked in the harbor there. This led to a transition of the Ukrainian Anti-Polish and anti-Romanian attitudes towards an anti-Russian/ anti-CIS attitude. In the meantime, the USA and Germany substituted Ukraine´s separate identity. Other countries joined the Ukrainian anti-Russia Movement. By the mid-1990s, a bloc of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Moldova was led by the Ukraine against the Russian endeavors to integrate the former Soviet States into the Russian Federation. A new “Slavic Union” under this condition was not possible.

Orange Revolution


In 2004, the Orange Revolution took place. At the presidential elections poll observers have noticed ballot rigging, corruption and voter intimidation in favor of Viktor Yanukovych, who´s policies are more Russian leaning and who won the first election. The followers of Viktor Yushchenko, who is Pro-West oriented, started protesting peacefully by a series of acts of civil disobedience, sit-ins and general strikes mostly in the Ukrainian capital Kiev. The protests fulfilled their goals and the election was annulled. At the following election, Yushchenko received 52 % of the vote and was declared the official winner

The Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact

The Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact was the contract Hitler needed to ensure that he can attack Poland without having to fear being defeated by a direct counter attack of several nations. But how did the pact come into existence with the USSR and Nazi Germany are two opposing countries? And could we assume that the Non-Aggression Pact was the crucial reason for the start of WWII?

In my blog post I will give a (very) short historical background, describe the reasons Stalin and Hitler wanted to have this contract and explain what happened after the contract was made:

Short Historical Background

Europe 1919-1929

In the time between the two World Wars, the political situation in Europe was chaotic:

In 1917 during the First World War, the Bolsheviks, led by Vladimir Lenin, pushed for a revolution in Russia. After the so-called Great October Socialist Revolution and followed by a bloody civil war, the Soviet Union was founded in 1922. After Lenin´s death in 1924, Joseph Stalin came to power in the USSR. Stalin was cold-blooded dictator, who pushed industrialization and infrastructure. Governmental repressions, for example deportations, executions and arrestments, were made against anyone who was a potential threat for the USSR. Those repressions and a famine killed nearly 20 Million people during Stalin´s reign of terror.

After the First World War, the Treaty of Versailles rearranged Europe territorially and politically. Germany had been given the responsibility of the outbreak of the First World War, so the Weimar Republic had to pay back every loss and damage and furthermore lost a significant amount of territory. Lots of Germans were extremely frustrated with the Treaty as they had to pay for the whole war, even though they were not completely responsible for the outbreak. The Great Depression in 1928 led to an economic crisis in Germany which was followed by a lot of dissatisfaction with the current government. Hitler took this opportunity and the Nazi Seizure of Power happened on January 30 in1933.

France and Britain tried to establish collective security in Europe up to 1939. As part of an embedment of Germany to the big European nations, France and Britain relaxed the regulations made in the Treaty of Versailles, which gave Germany the opportunity to strengthen their military capacity, to make a forced incorporation of Austria (“Anschluss”) and annex other territories such as the Rhineland. At the Munich conference, France and the United Kingdom permitted Nazi Germany to annex parts of Czechoslovakia, which were mainly inhabited by German speakers, the “Sudetenland”. The agreement was made to prevent an upcoming war, even though France had to act against the contract they made with the Czechoslovakia.

Germany and Poland had a good relationship up until 1938. Cultural exchange and a Non-Aggression pact should be the start of an alliance, which later Hitler wanted to use in a war against the Soviet Union. The Non-Aggression pact also should solve several territorial problems the Treaty of Versailles has made, for example Germany claimed Danzig and the Polish-Corridor for a direct connection between the German Reich and East Prussia in exchange for another 25 years of peace. As Poland did not want to be undermined and lose its access to the Baltic Sea, they declined the offer, resulting in a termination of the contract by the Nazis on April 28 in 1939.

Hitler´s ideology

Hitler´s idea, the New Order of Europe, which he explained in his book Mein Kampf, was to create a pan-German racial state structured according to the Nazi ideology. Hitler wanted to create Lebensraum (Ger. = Living Space) in Eastern Europe, which means that Hitler wanted to colonize German, Aryan-Nordic people to Eastern Europe while physically annihilating all Jews and people who were (according to his ideology) “unworthy of life”. Altogether, his plan was in the end to conquer the Soviet Union and to fight back Great Britain if they were to interfere on the continent. To establish Germany as a major country/ power in Europe, he planned to invade France. Since Hitler was afraid to be attacked from two sides, like it had happened in the First World War in which Germany had lost, he tried to gain safe ground in the East. After the Non-Aggression Agreement between Germany and Poland had been terminated, Hitler developed a new plan: he wanted to make a non-aggression treaty with the Soviet Union and invade Poland afterwards, so he would still have no risk of being fought against at two sides.

Hitler wanted his ambitions to be fulfilled in his lifetime, which means, that he had pressure of time. Hitler wanted to declare war on Poland in the autumn of 1939, but he needed a guarantee from the USSR that they would not attack Germany before he could go into war against Poland. Poland at that time had a treaty with France and Great Britain, which guaranteed if Poland will be attacked, France and Great Britain will support Poland. So, Hitler needed his troops in the west of Germany, ready to defend an attack from France or Great Britain and he could not concentrate on a defense against the Soviet Red Army, if they wanted to attack him in the East.

Ribbentrop-Molotov-Pact

What Hitler wanted to be in the treaty:

The Non-Aggression Treaty should solve several problems for Hitler:

  • Hitler feared the threat of the USSR in the East – he needed to be sure that Stalin would not attack him in a war against Poland.
  • Hitler wanted to prevent an alliance between the Soviet Union and England, which would have resulted in the Third Reich being surrounded by enemies and being vulnerable at multiple fronts at once.
  • In case of a war, the Nazis knew that England would shut down the supply route through the North Sea with a blockade. The third Reich had the Soviet Union as a new trading partner who guaranteed resources throughout the war.
  • Hitler was hoping that France and England would cancel the contract they made with Poland if they heard that the USSR and Germany made a non-aggression treaty. That would have taken a lot of pressure from Hitler since then he would not need to fear a direct attack from the Western countries anymore. Unfortunately for the Germans, England and Poland founded the Anglo-Polish military alliance on August 25 in 1939, which came into action in case of a war against Poland, as an answer to the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact.

Stalin´s reasons why he made the treaty with Hitler

The Soviet Union was not taken earnestly by the Western Countries. Any negotiations for an alliance between the USSR and the Western democracies were not taken seriously by Great Britain and France. Stalin was teased with a French pact that foreswore military cooperation, by excluding the Soviet Union from the Munich Conference and by military talks which were not taken seriously by Great Britain and France (Representatives of Great Britain and France were not given the authority to form an alliance by their governments). To show the Western democracies that Stalin lost interest in an alliance, he replaced his old foreign minister Maxim Litvinov, who was very interested in a Soviet alliance with the western nations – for example, under his stewardship, the Soviet Union joined the League of Nations and became one of the most vocal supporters of collective security – to Vyacheslav Molotov. Up to this point, Stalin´s plan was to get as much assistance from the capitalist world as possible, but he could not make peace with capitalism as an ideology. (A quote of Stalin describes his emotions to this ideology the best:”When we hang the capitalists they will sell us the rope we use.”)
Stalin´s standard thesis was that there was no difference between the Western democracies and the fascist dictators, as he saw no differences in the policies of these countries as they all have their basis in a capitalist ideology.

In 1939, Stalin more or less “sold” Moscow´s goodwill in any impending war to the highest bidder, which in effect was an invitation for Nazi Germany to make a bid (Kissinger, p. 339). But still, he did not want to be actively engaged in the war, Stalin just wanted to take the benefits of war. The USSR also had multiple reasons why a treaty with Nazi Germany was the best solution at that time:

  • Germany was the militarily strongest opponent for Stalin at that moment. A non-aggression treaty with him should have guaranteed peace for the next few years. It was also a safer option than a treaty with the Western countries, since the protection the Western countries promised was questionable.
  • The major point of interest of the USSR was Poland, which was right next to Germany. A war with Germany would have been inevitable if Stalin wanted to annex parts of Poland.
  • The USSR wanted to avoid a war as long as possible. An arrangement with the Western democracies had quickened the entry into a war a lot.
  • This possible war could have been a two front war, in which Germany attacked the USSR in the East and Japan, which was an ally of Germany as being part of the Anti-Comintern Pact which also included Italy.
  • Stalin wanted to avoid a war as long as possible, because the stability of his regime was not guaranteed and the military capacity of the Red Army was not really developed.
  • Stalin still had a little bit hope, that the USSR will not be involved at all in the upcoming wars and that they can take some kind of spectator role.

The negotiations of Ribbentrop and Molotov

Stalin waited for an offer by the Germans; he did not want to make the first move. One reason for that is that if Great Britain noticed that the Soviet Union wants to cooperate with Nazi Germany, they might have left him alone and then the Soviet Union would have been facing Hitler without any help. Another reason was that unlike Hitler, he faced no deadlines. He demonstrated that his nerves were made of steel and waited for an offer coming from Germany.

German Foreign Minister Joachim Von Ribbentrop (left), Soviet leader Josef Stalin, and Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov (right) meet at the Kremlin on August 23, 1939, to sign the nonaggression pact.

Hitler´s anxiety rose. To fulfill his plan to annex Poland before the autumn rains in 1939, he needed to be sure that Stalin would not attack him. On August 20, Hitler became too nervous. He wrote Stalin a letter and asked if they could begin to negotiate about a non-aggression pact. Stalin invited a German representative to Moscow, hoping that the will mark a decisive turn for the better in the political relation between the two countries (Kissinger p. 347). In Moscow, the German foreign minister Ribbentrop proposed in a secret protocol the new division of Eastern Europe. The secret protocol stated that the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany should become the only two powers in Eastern Europe:

  1. Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland were divided into Soviet and German “spheres of influence”, Finland, Estonia and Latvia were directly assigned to the Soviet Union.
  2. Poland was divided into two territories along the rivers Pisa, Narev, Vistula and San. A discussion if an independent Polish state should remain was postponed to after additional political development has happened.
  3. The Soviet Union declared interest at Bessarabia; the Germans were not interested in those territories.
  4. The protocol should be kept a secret by both nations.

Hitler fulfilled every change Stalin wanted to make in the contract, as Hitler needed the pact to be signed as soon as possible. The negotiations ended on August 23.

(US cartoonist Herb Block 1939)

The Non-Aggression Agreement as the opening for the World War in Europe
Hitler´s back was now secured; there was nothing that could stop him going to war against Poland. Stalin knew that a general war was inevitable now, even though his Red Army was extremely bad equipped and not really ready for war. On September 1, 1939, Hitler started his war on Poland, which was smashed by Nazi Germany in less than a month and the Soviet Union occupied her part of Poland in September 17.

France and Great Britain declared war on Nazi Germany on September 3, but France attacked Germany only with a symbolic army. France gained ground in the Saarland, the German forces retreated without much fighting. On September 21, the French troops were ordered back to the Maginot Line in France. After Poland had been conquered, German troops from the East Front had been sent to the Front in the West. A ceasefire was the beginning of the “phony war”, which lasted up to May 1940. In November 1939, Stalin attacked Finland. Even though the war was costly and took very long, the USSR won in March 1940 and took over several parts of Finland. World War II had officially begun and a Non-Aggression Pact started it.

“Victims” of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact

Division of Poland as it was shown in a newspaper on September 18, 1939

The Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact had multiple “victims”, some of them were expected and others were unexpected. Expected victims were the countries Poland, Finland and the Baltic States Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. They all lost their independency and were conquered by either the Soviet Union or the Third Reich.
An unexpected victim for example was the Anti-Hitler-movement in Germany and Austria. Antifascists, social-democrats and communists were surprised that the Soviet Union supported the Nazi Regime as they expected that the USSR as a self-proclaimed antifascist state would fight the fascist government in Germany. In Austria, even the founding of a communistic party was interrupted as they were confused by the actions of their ideological model.
The population in the USSR was not pleased with the agreement made with the Germans. Moral and political approval of the government started to decline, because the Soviet Union was trading food to the Germans even though their own citizens were not having enough food to eat. But still most of the population believed in the integrity of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and the policies made by the government.

Conclusion

Stalin´s and Hitler´s Non-Aggression Pact was the last thing Hitler needed to start the war. Even though France, Great Britain and the USSR as the biggest powers in Europe tried to prevent the war as long as possible, Hitler´s willingness to go to war was unbreakable. While Hitler originally planned to attack the USSR with Poland, he ended up attacking Poland with the USSR. Later in 1941, he tried to fulfill his plan of attacking the USSR as well, which led to the breach of the non-aggression agreement. He failed and was attacked by the USSR which defeated Nazi Germany together with the Allies in 1945.

I think that if Hitler and Stalin had not agreed on the contract, Hitler would have found another way to start a war. Hitler was psychopath and his ideology was so deeply held in him, he would have gone to war sooner or later. The Non-Aggression Pact only allowed him to attack Poland earlier, otherwise it would only have been a matter of time.

References

Kissinger, H. 1995. Diplomacy. New York: Simon & Schuster. 1995. 332-368.

Lipinsky, J. 2004. Das geheime Zusatzprotokoll zum deutsch-sowjetischen Nichtangriffspakt vom 23.August 1939 und seine Entstehungs- und Rezeptionsgeschichte von 1939 bis 1999. Frankfurt: Peter Lang GmbH.

Bisovsky, G.; Schafranek, H.; Streibel, R.1990. Der Hitler-Stalin-Pakt, Voraussetzungen, Hintergründe, Auswirkungen. Wien: Picus Verlag Ges.m.b.H.

Kley, S. 1996. Hitler, Ribbentrop und die Entfesselung des Zweiten Weltkriegs. Paderborn: Ferdinand Schöningh GmbH.

Niedhart, G. 1976. Kriegsbeginn 1939 Entfesselung oder Ausbruch des zweiten Weltkriegs? Darmstadt: Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft.

Kleßmann,C. 1989. Nicht nur Hitlers Krieg: der Zweite Weltkrieg und die Deutschen. Düsseldorf: Droste

Pictures: http://www.rferl.org/media/photogallery/history-world-war-soviet-union/26538932.html

 

Welcome to my blog

Hey,

I´m Stephan Fuhrmann, 19 years old and I study Political Science and Public Law at the University of Mannheim.
This blog is part of my assignments for the course „PS Introduction to International Relations: Russian Foreign Policy“ by Mark Mazureanu at the University of Mannheim.
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